Usd/Jpy, Bullish Target at 98.88, Oil, Still Below

Usd/Jpy, Bullish target at 98.88

4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 91.74, 94.35 and 98.88. Looking for: Wave C, or III

Yen is trading higher, after a bullish Wall Street close on Friday, in response to the NFP report. We are looking for a near-term bullish wave count with wave C or III in progress, after the market broke through the red wave I/A highs. Traders should be looking for a possible move up, near to the 98.88 target area, so long as the wave II/B, 94.35 low holds.

Oil, Still Below

Weekly chart trend: Long. Main price points: , and 73. Looking for: Wave 2).

Oil bounced from the trend-line resistance area, where per barrel appears to be the top of wave 1) followed by the current, corrective wave 2). We are looking for the sub-waves of a new up-trend, as red wave B is completed at per barrel. This support area needs to holds in the coming months and years, while wave C develops. Stochastic indicators are also in a pull-back mode, which may suggest a turning point in the coming weeks.

The 38.2% Fibonacci level may already be the bottom of wave 2).

Daily chart trend: mixed. Main price points: 58.30, and 73.27. Looking for: Break through 73.27

Oil prices on a daily chart are still below the wave 1) top; .27 per barrel, which means that there are two possible scenarios. The first one is that wave 2) is already completed around 38.2% of wave 1), at .33 per barrel, which means that a break through wave 1) highs is expected.

If the break of 73.27 does not soon happen, then it may also be the case of a more complex wave 2), which means that a turning point into another leg down, below 58.30 is also one of the valid scenarios. Traders should pay attention to a bullish move if the 73.27 area fails or on a more complex wave 2) if the 58.30 support gets broken.

4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 58.30, 62.64 and 73.27. Looking for: Two wave counts

On the four hour oil chart, the price structure is still very tricky, since prices have not broken the 73.27 resistance area yet. As such, there are two possible wave counts shown below that are valid.

Wave count #1: The first one is a bullish wave count with a completed black wave 2) at the 58.30 zone, followed by an impulse structure that should lead prices much higher during the next few weeks and months. If this is the correct count then the 62.64 lows must hold, as an extended red wave III is developing with a black sub-wave iii in process.

Wave count #2: The second wave count is signaling for another leg lower in the coming days for a more complex correction in a black wave 2). We are talking about wave C that should fall down below the 58.30 wave A support before wave 2) can be completed. If this is the case then the current wave B and the 73.27 highs must hold.

Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved. http://www.TheLFB-Forex.com

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

Usd/Jpy, Bullish Target at 98.88, Oil, Still Below

Usd/Jpy, Bullish target at 98.88

4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 91.74, 94.35 and 98.88. Looking for: Wave C, or III

Yen is trading higher, after a bullish Wall Street close on Friday, in response to the NFP report. We are looking for a near-term bullish wave count with wave C or III in progress, after the market broke through the red wave I/A highs. Traders should be looking for a possible move up, near to the 98.88 target area, so long as the wave II/B, 94.35 low holds.

Oil, Still Below

Weekly chart trend: Long. Main price points: , and 73. Looking for: Wave 2).

Oil bounced from the trend-line resistance area, where per barrel appears to be the top of wave 1) followed by the current, corrective wave 2). We are looking for the sub-waves of a new up-trend, as red wave B is completed at per barrel. This support area needs to holds in the coming months and years, while wave C develops. Stochastic indicators are also in a pull-back mode, which may suggest a turning point in the coming weeks.

The 38.2% Fibonacci level may already be the bottom of wave 2).

Daily chart trend: mixed. Main price points: 58.30, and 73.27. Looking for: Break through 73.27

Oil prices on a daily chart are still below the wave 1) top; .27 per barrel, which means that there are two possible scenarios. The first one is that wave 2) is already completed around 38.2% of wave 1), at .33 per barrel, which means that a break through wave 1) highs is expected.

If the break of 73.27 does not soon happen, then it may also be the case of a more complex wave 2), which means that a turning point into another leg down, below 58.30 is also one of the valid scenarios. Traders should pay attention to a bullish move if the 73.27 area fails or on a more complex wave 2) if the 58.30 support gets broken.

4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 58.30, 62.64 and 73.27. Looking for: Two wave counts

On the four hour oil chart, the price structure is still very tricky, since prices have not broken the 73.27 resistance area yet. As such, there are two possible wave counts shown below that are valid.

Wave count #1: The first one is a bullish wave count with a completed black wave 2) at the 58.30 zone, followed by an impulse structure that should lead prices much higher during the next few weeks and months. If this is the correct count then the 62.64 lows must hold, as an extended red wave III is developing with a black sub-wave iii in process.

Wave count #2: The second wave count is signaling for another leg lower in the coming days for a more complex correction in a black wave 2). We are talking about wave C that should fall down below the 58.30 wave A support before wave 2) can be completed. If this is the case then the current wave B and the 73.27 highs must hold.

Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved. http://www.TheLFB-Forex.com

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

Forex Technical Analytics

CHF

The estimated variant for sales was implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated targets. OsMA trend indicator, after divergence formation, marked reverse momentum but further bullish activity rise was not enough for upside movement and now, considering bullish activity fall, you should expect retest of lower channel border, where it is recommended to reevaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of shorter time interval. As for buying positions, the targets will be 1,0680/1,0700 and (or) further variant up to 1,7040/60, 1,0820. The alternative break-out variant for sales on condition of formation of confirmative signals will be below 1,0560 with the targets of 1,0500/20 further variant up to 1,0390/1,0410, 1,0220.

GBP

The estimated variant for buying positions has been implemented with overlap of maximum targets. At this point, OsMA trend indicator marked topping signal that together with bearish activity rise suggests rate return to close supports with further test of this zone. As for sales, the targets will be 1,6840/60 and (or) further variant up to 1,6750/70, 1,6680. The alternative for buying positions on condition of the formation of confirmative signals the targets will be 1,6980/1,7000 and (or) further variant up to 1,7030, 1,7070/90.

JPY

The pre-planned long positions were implemented with the overlap of minimum estimated target. OsMA trend indicator marked bearish activity rise. On the assumption of it as well as of the absence of close support levels and of descending direction of indicator chart we can suppose further development of short positions priority. In this case it is necessary to pay attention to false break-outs and to the possibility of rate return to the channel borders, therefore you shouldn’t forget about the signals of shorter intervals. As for sales, the targets will be 94,00/10 and (or) further variant up to 93,30/50, 92,20/40. As for buying positions, the targets will be 94,70/90 and (or) further variant up to 95,20/40, 95,80, 96,40.

EUR

The estimated targets for long positions were implemented with overlap of maximum targets in the result of rate rebound from support level. OsMA trend indicator, having marked bearish activity top, suggests further rate rise and testing of upper channel border. As for short-term buying positions, the targets will be 1,4440 and (or) further variant up to 1,4520/40, 1,4670. As for sales, the targets will be 1,4360, 1,4260/80 and (or) further variant up to 1,4180/1,4200, 1,4030/50.

FOREX Ltd
www.forexltd.co.uk

USD/JPY Jogs between our Trend Lines While Playing with 95

Japan’s trade balance came in below analyst expectations late Wednesday, yet surging U.S. equities trumped the disappointing data point as we anticipated. A recovery in U.S. corporate performance implies greater demand for Japanese exports in the future, weakening the Yen and improving prospects of a global economic recovery. Even though Japan’s trade balance was shy of expectations, we’re pretty encouraged by the swift recovery over the past two releases from recession lows. The data reveals export prospects are picking up as stimulus packages ultimately prop up demand for Japanese exports. Employment markets in the developed economies are improving along with consumption, bringing life back to the Japanese manufacturing sector. Japan will release more telling data next week, including retail sales, prelim industrial production, household spending, and the Tokyo core CPI. If the S&P futures can base and continue their ascent while Japanese data points outperform, the USD/JPY could have what it takes to crack our 2nd tier uptrend line.

Yesterday’s movement propelled the USD/JPY back above the important 1st tier uptrend line. The currency pair is making a stronger bit for a return to safety in the process. However, the USD/JPY is being held down by our 1st tier downtrend line and the psychological 95 level. It appears investors will need more confirmation before committing the necessary funds for the currency pair to take a more substantial step higher. Nevertheless, Thursday’s move was encouraging, placing the USD/JPY in a more comfortable territory technically. Meanwhile, our 1st tier downtrend line along with 7/22 and 7/13 lows create a nice immediate-term support system.

Present Price: 94.76

Resistances: 94.99, 95.73, 96.33, 96.77, 97.20

Supports: 94.49, 93.82, 93.28, 92.90, 92.39

Psychological: 95

FastBrokers

Disclaimer: FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. © Fast Trading Services, LLC. All materials are proprerty of Fast Trading services, LLC and unless otherwise indicated,any unauthorised reproduction is prohibited.

Did The Aussie U turn?

The comeback of risk appetite pushed the Australian dollar close to yearly highs. As green shoots are showing across the global economy and growth forecast are being upgraded traders are willing to take up more risk and are dumping the safe heaven like the US dollar again like the Aussie which holds higher interest. The fact that a complete majority of the companies earning reports hit analyst expectation is supporting almost two weeks of consecutive green closes when last night the Dow crossed the 9000 level for the first time since January. This might trigger some natural take profits by cautious traders who enjoyed the rally and hence put a halt on the Aussie ascent.

Technical perspective:

The prices failed to create a new high in the current rally edging at 0.8230 lower than the previous high at 0.8270. Should we see a drop below 0.8050 we will have a bearish triple top formation that might encourage further sales on the pair.

The MA’s of 20 and 50 days which gave good indication for the start of the rally are not yet confirming its end , the 20 days is approaching the 50 days but no clear bearish cross had occurred yet. If the 50 and 20 days moving averages will make a bearish cross fresh sells might be trigger.

The momentum is still pointing upward but the RSI is neutral and the MACD is showing signs of shifting back to a bearish direction. The histogram in the MACD is flat and fails to reach higher, the fast moving average started to turn toward the slow one.

Market strategy:

On the buy position targets are set towards the 0.8250/0.8270 and should we have a break higher will aim for the 0.8385 resistance (61.8% Fibonacci). Since this morning the prices came back to trade below the 00.8170 resistance, buying interest might come around 0.81/0.8050, stops on long position are located around 0.7910.

Selling strategies are set from the levels of 0.8170/0.8250 with stops around 0.8365, a break of the 0.81/0.8050 support level might trigger further sells, target are set toward 0.7990, 0.7880 and 0.7750.

Finotec Group Inc.

http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

EUR/USD

Today’s support: - 1.4130 and 1.4096(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4078, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4065. Break of the latter would result in 1.4042. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4023. Continuation will give 1.3972.

Today’s resistance: - 1.4197, 1.4220, 1.4245 and 1.4273(main). Break would give 1.4308, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4327. Break of the latter would result in 1.4348. If a strong impulse, we’d see 1.4370. Continuation will give 1.4396.

USD/JPY

Today’s support: - 94.68 and 94.05(main). Break would bring 93.56, where correction is possible. Then 93.20, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 93.00. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.64. Continuation would give 92.26.

Today’s resistance: - 94.95(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.18, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today’s support: - 9033.72 and 9005.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8988.76, where correction also can be. Then follows 8957.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8912.70. Continuation will bring 8881.87.

Today’s resistance: - 9113.90 and 9150.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9177.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9191.26, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 9219.37. Continuation would bring 9246.50 and 9264.37.

FXtechtrade
http://www.fxtechtrade.com

Disclaimer: Any information presented by Nikolajs Serikovs at this very website should be in no way understood as an offer, promise or guarantee for receiving a profit or avoiding the losses. Stated here levels of support and resistance must not be construed as an investment advice or endorsement for any financial instrument. There exists no guarantee that the market would behave in accordance with the information stated here Prepared in Republic of Latvia for the worldwide distribution.

Chart Of The Day: USD/CAD

7/23/2009 – USD/CAD – Steeply bearish price action within the last couple of weeks on USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has brought price down from a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (measured off the long bearish run from 1.3060 to 1.0780) to approach the downtrend lows once again. The major immediate downside support target for the current bearishness resides in the 1.0800 support/resistance price region, which represents the area of the downtrend lows. Any substantial breakdown below that level would confirm a downtrend continuation potentially targeting further key support around 1.0550.

James Chen
Chief Technical Analyst

FX Solutions

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions,LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions’ FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 200-period simple moving average in light blue.)

FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0695/0699…Seeking Direction

R: 1.0720-26 / 1.077-89
S: 1.0647 / 1.0624-20 / 1.0594

Swiss has risen sharply in the Asia session after a pull pack yesterday. It is currently standing at the Resistance formed by 89 period moving average of the Highs in the 4-hourly. It is expected to take support at 1.0681, the much talked about long term support obtained by joining the Lows of 2nd June (1.0590) and 24th June (1.0631) which is also the 38.2% level of today’s rally.

Support at 1.0681 may propel the pair to greater highs of 1.0726 in the coming US session. If however the Support gives in to the bears, the low of 2nd June at 1.0590 can be tested.

Limit Buy Order:

• Buy USD 10K at 1.0660, SL 1.0590, TP 1.0740

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6510/14…Resistance at 1.6550

R: 1.6550-60 / 1.6600 / 1.6670
S: 1.6460 / 1.6375 / 1.6320

Cable saw a break above 1.6500 during the day. After trading above 1.6500 and recording a high of 1.6544, the pair once again fell below 1.6500 and is now trading just above 1.6500. On the upside 1.6550 is a significant level to watch for now. A break above this level may see the pair testing 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) in which it has been trading for some time.

On the downside the 21-MA on the 4-hr (1.6461) is a significant level to watch for. The pair has not seen a strong break below this Support level during the day. A strong break below this Support at 1.6461 might pull the pair down towards 1.6375-6350 in the coming sessions.

Holding:

• GBP 10K Short at 1.6460, SL 1.6550, TP 1.6320

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8176/79…Bearish outlook

R: 0.8206 / 0.8257
S: 0.8131-24 / 0.8088-76 / 0.8043

Aussie tried to break the top of the range and rose till 0.8206 (the first resistance mentioned before). However similar to what happened yesterday it has entered back into the range (0.8108-0.8180) in which it has been trading for 3 weeks now.

As for the US session, we expect the pair to touch the Support of 0.8131 if the bearishness continues. A sharp fall and break below 0.8131 can catalyze downward momentum, which can lead the pair to 0.8108 (which is the bottom of the range) and 0.8043 (which is a major horizontal Support – joining recent tops in the 4-hourly). On the upside, the trend is losing its momentum yet a movement above the current levels should be stalled at 0.8206 or 0.8257 (which is a major Resistance)

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0695/0699…Seeking Direction

R: 1.0720-26 / 1.077-89
S: 1.0647 / 1.0624-20 / 1.0594

Swiss has risen sharply in the Asia session after a pull pack yesterday. It is currently standing at the Resistance formed by 89 period moving average of the Highs in the 4-hourly. It is expected to take support at 1.0681, the much talked about long term support obtained by joining the Lows of 2nd June (1.0590) and 24th June (1.0631) which is also the 38.2% level of today’s rally.

Support at 1.0681 may propel the pair to greater highs of 1.0726 in the coming US session. If however the Support gives in to the bears, the low of 2nd June at 1.0590 can be tested.

Limit Buy Order:

• Buy USD 10K at 1.0660, SL 1.0590, TP 1.0740

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6510/14…Resistance at 1.6550

R: 1.6550-60 / 1.6600 / 1.6670
S: 1.6460 / 1.6375 / 1.6320

Cable saw a break above 1.6500 during the day. After trading above 1.6500 and recording a high of 1.6544, the pair once again fell below 1.6500 and is now trading just above 1.6500. On the upside 1.6550 is a significant level to watch for now. A break above this level may see the pair testing 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) in which it has been trading for some time.

On the downside the 21-MA on the 4-hr (1.6461) is a significant level to watch for. The pair has not seen a strong break below this Support level during the day. A strong break below this Support at 1.6461 might pull the pair down towards 1.6375-6350 in the coming sessions.

Holding:

• GBP 10K Short at 1.6460, SL 1.6550, TP 1.6320

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8176/79…Bearish outlook

R: 0.8206 / 0.8257
S: 0.8131-24 / 0.8088-76 / 0.8043

Aussie tried to break the top of the range and rose till 0.8206 (the first resistance mentioned before). However similar to what happened yesterday it has entered back into the range (0.8108-0.8180) in which it has been trading for 3 weeks now.

As for the US session, we expect the pair to touch the Support of 0.8131 if the bearishness continues. A sharp fall and break below 0.8131 can catalyze downward momentum, which can lead the pair to 0.8108 (which is the bottom of the range) and 0.8043 (which is a major horizontal Support – joining recent tops in the 4-hourly). On the upside, the trend is losing its momentum yet a movement above the current levels should be stalled at 0.8206 or 0.8257 (which is a major Resistance)

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

USD/CAD Flirts with 1.0950 Support Level

The USD/CAD has been on a steep decline, nearly 600 pips, that has only recently paused because of support from the 1.0950 level.

This is the second time the pair has encountered the 1.0950 level in recent trading, and with pair testing this level several times in the past, we can confirming that there is a substantial amount of strength at the 1.0950 support level.

However, even with the existence of a strong support level, the pair may be headed for deeper waters as the pair is heavily influenced by the price of oil. If the pair is able to continue its downward momentum and oil prices continue to rise, then the chance of a strong break below the 1.0950 is very possible.

Matthew Cherry
TradersChoiceFX - Forex Broker